Population ageing in Arab countries: future prospects and socio-economic and health consequences

Prem C. Saxena, Independent Consultant

This paper examines the prospects of aging and variations therein in 22 members of the League of Arab States by the middle of the 21st century. The analysis is based upon medium variant population projections published by the United Nations (2002). A modified version of Golin’s conceptual framework describing the dynamics of aging process, its determinants and micro and macroeconomic consequences is proposed. Based on various indices of aging, Arab States have been classified as relatively “Fast”, “Medium”, and “Slow” aging countries. Socioeconomic and Health consequences of aging due to increase in dependency burden, swelling of numbers of retirees and widows have been discussed. Existing social security schemes for elderly in selected Arab States have been reviewed. Nonexistence or limited coverage of security plans in some countries compelled a significant proportion of aged population to work even if their health did not permit. Finally, the paper gives the policy recommendations.