New method for projecting mortality of Canadian provinces and territories, 2001-2051

Laurent Martel, Statistics Canada
Laurie Paquette, Université de Montréal
Robert R. Bourbeau, Université de Montréal

In this paper, a new method for mortality projections is proposed for Statistics Canada official population projections, done by provinces and territories. The former method needed a few hypothesis no longer required with this new method called the two-factor LC model and based on the recent work of Li and Lee. Basically, this method addresses the problem of divergence that inevitably appears when projecting ten provinces, three territories and two sexes separately using the well-know Lee-Carter model. This divergence in regional life expectancies is undesirable as past trends has shown a convergence in life expectancy of the Canadian provinces, in part due to the fact that these provinces have similar socio-economic conditions and close connections. This paper is one of the first to investigate the efficiency of the new two-factor LC model through an application for Canada.