Age-structural transition in Iran and its short and long-term consequences, 2000-2050

Nader Motie-Haghshenas, Ministry of Science, Iran
Shirin Ahmad-Nia, Ministry of Science, Iran

Immediately after the Islamic Revolution (1979) the government of Iran adopted a pronatalist policy advocating early marriage and childbearing as basic Islamic values. The result was a tremendous rise in fertility rate and a drastic change in the age structure of the population. Although the baby-boom period was rather short and the antinatalist policy adopted in 1989 has been surprisingly successful, the age structural transition (AST) produced by the pronatlaist policy has already affected various aspects of Iranian society. The aim of this paper is to review the process and dynamics of AST in Iran. Using two sets of population projections (UN 2002 and PSRC, 2003) the varying size and age structure of Iranian population between 2000 and 2050 is examined and medium and long-term consequences of the changing age structure for social and economic development of the country are explored.