Mapping elderly migration in Brazil using data of 2000 census

João Francisco Abreu, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais
Cláudio C. Machado, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais

Brazil finds in an advanced phase of the process of demographic transition. The shrinking of the base of the aging pyramid and the growth of its vertex are already noticeable. The elderly population that formerly comprised 4% of the population in the beginning of the transition process (1940) ended up as 9% (2000) and will reach 12% (2020). A new phenomena that concern migratory fluctuations has been taken place: a decline in net migration rate from underdeveloped regions to more industrialized regions. This decline in the net migration rate can be partly explained by return migration. Considering that part of this occurs mainly by elderly people and this participation will grow in the country, it is important to know migratory patterns of the elderly vis-à-vis the younger. Spatial analysis and GIS will be used specifically Tobler’s approach (Tobler, 1976) for mapping the flows and, for the identification of migration patterns.